Danube Congestion Continues to Tighten General Cargo and Small Dry Bulk Vessel Availability in the Black Sea – Drewry | 02/09/26

Persistent congestion on the Danube River is reducing vessel availability in the Black Sea, particularly for smaller general cargo vessels, and maintaining upward pressure on freight rates throughout the grain export season. Repeated Russian attacks on Ukrainian export infrastructure in the Odesa region have disrupted operations at the country’s main Black Sea ports, forcing cargo to be redirected through lower-capacity Danube ports such as Reni and Izmail and creating severe congestion around Sulina. Around 70 general cargo and dry bulk vessels are currently waiting to transit, while only three to four vessels per day are able to move toward Ukraine due to factors including pilot shortages, prioritization of cargoes such as fuel, frequent air-raid alerts and weather-related interruptions. Among the affected vessels are approximately 52 general cargo ships above 2,600 dwt, totaling around 280,000 dwt. Although they represent only 4% of the Black Sea fleet of vessels up to 10,000 dwt, delays are removing effective capacity from the market; moreover, around 23% of the global fleet in this segment is typically deployed in the region. The impact on trade is already significant, with Ukrainian grain exports falling nearly 70% year-on-year in August, despite efforts to redirect cargo through the Danube. Draft restrictions and infrastructure limitations are also favoring smaller general cargo vessels over Handysize and Handymax bulkers, with shipments increasingly divided into smaller parcels. Longer waiting times are increasing inefficiencies and keeping vessels occupied without generating revenue, prompting owners to price this risk into freight negotiations, with an estimated additional cost of US$7,000 per day. If Ukrainian export flows through the Danube remain elevated, Drewry expects congestion to continue limiting vessel availability and supporting regional voyage and time-charter rates throughout the grain export season, even without significant growth in overall cargo volumes. Link to Article