Less Rain, Fewer Ships: The Panama Canal Adjusts Its Operations Again – Trade News | 31/08/26

The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) announced a new phased reduction in daily transits after rainfall between May and August came in 34% below the historical average, while inflows into the canal watershed fell 44%. Starting on September 4, the number of vessels allowed to transit the canal will decrease from 36 to 34 per day, before falling further to 32 from September 15. The situation is considerably less severe than during the 2023-2024 drought, when daily transits dropped as low as 18, but concerns are focused on the coming months: forecasts cited in the article indicate an 81% probability that El Niño will reach “very strong” status by the end of 2026, threatening the January-April 2027 dry season. As a result, the ACP has chosen to reduce vessel transits in advance while postponing planned draft restrictions in an effort to preserve the depth required by larger ships. The adjustment is significant for international trade because the canal handles around 5% of global trade, with more than 70% of its cargo originating in or destined for the United States. Fewer daily slots could lead to longer waiting times, pressure on freight rates and reduced predictability, while also creating concentrated arrival peaks and additional pressure on U.S. ports such as Savannah, Houston and New York-New Jersey. The article compares the situation with the Paraná-Paraguay Waterway, emphasizing that while infrastructure can reduce risk, operations dependent on waterways remain vulnerable to natural conditions across their watersheds. The ACP will continue monitoring conditions and could announce further adjustments if the situation does not improve. Link to Article