Spot freight rates multiplied: the structural decline in warehouse capacity that defines the new logistics paradigm – Trade News | 09/08/26

Global ocean freight rates have doubled and even tripled since the start of the war in Iran in late February 2026, but behind this increase lie not only demand-side factors but also a structural contraction in available capacity that is transforming the market. Although the order book for new ships accounts for 37% of the existing fleet, various factors are reducing effective supply: chronic port congestion, the growing use of blank sailings to manage capacity, and geopolitical disruptions. Port delays extend lead times and raise inventory costs, while infrastructure fails to keep pace with operational growth, and only 9% of global terminals are automated. At the same time, shipping lines are increasingly using service cancellations as a tool to control capacity and prevent rate declines. Added to this are the Red Sea crisis and detours via the Cape of Good Hope, which absorb between 5% and 10% of global nominal capacity, as well as nearshoring and the “China+1” strategy, which shift cargo to countries with less developed port infrastructure. The result is a market in which the addition of new vessels does not necessarily lead to an oversupply, because these constraints absorb capacity and create periods of tension that shipping companies exploit through widespread rate increases, thereby altering the traditional relationship between supply, demand, and shipping rates. Link to Article